Release Date: July 9, 2024
Harvard Business Review Press
REVIEWS
July 19, 2024
Book Review: Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
July 18, 2024
(Dis)Trusting Geopolitical Experts and Models
August 22, 2024
Best of HR books: August 2024
July 11, 2024
Summer reading for CEOs
July 1, 2024
10 New Ecommerce Books for Summer 2024
October 2, 2024
How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk
MEDIA MENTIONS
August 1, 2024
‘Good Macro’ is changing. How to prepare.
February 12, 2024
The Fed Is Right to Be Patient on Rate Cuts
August 6, 2024
Is the US headed for recession?
September 16, 2024
The Fed is finally about to cut interest rates. What took so long?
February 6, 2024
‘Higher but healthy’
September 16, 2024
Questions Surrounds Fed’s Interest Rate Cut Strategy
October 7, 2024
INSIDER TODAY with Dan DeFrancesco
April 22, 2024
Investors are fearful. They shouldn’t be
February 4, 2024
Nobody’s quitting their job anymore. That’s a bad sign for workers.
August 13, 2024
Did the Fed make a mistake holding rates in July?
AUTHORED ARTICLES
June 11, 2024
How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk
July 31, 2024
What’s wrong with economics
August 15, 2024
Why AI will not lead to a world without work
September 3, 2024
What to expect for inflation, employment, and trade in the ‘tight 20s’
PODCASTS
September 11, 2024
Ideas Lab: How to Evaluate True Macro Risk
July 8, 2024
Hidden Forces with Demetri Kofinas
July 12, 2024
Moody’s Talks – Inside Economics
July 12, 2024
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
July 2, 2024
Forward Guidance with Jack Farley
November 11, 2024
unSILOed with Gregory LaBlanc
August 15, 2024
Faster, Please!
July 7, 2024
The Chris Voss Show
August 8, 2024
The Cashflow Academy
August 9, 2024
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
September 23, 2024
Great Leadership with Jacob Morgan
August 15, 2024
Going DEEP into ‘global macro’ with Philipp Carlsson
August 7, 2024
The Corporate Director Podcast
LIVE EVENTS
July 16, 2024
Harvard Business Review Webinar
September 16-19, 2024
Fast Company Innovation Festival
September 16, 2024
The Economic Club of New York
September 29, 2024
CFP Board Connections Conference
September 26, 2024
Museum of American Finance
December 12, 2024
Global Economic Policy Forum
(New Delhi)
November 13, 2024
MEMA Annual Conference
August 10, 2024
Conversation with Ed Stacy at The River’s End Bookstore
PRAISE FOR SHOCKS, CRISES, AND FALSE ALARMS
“A great book that helps business leaders interpret macroeconomic risks and derive implications for their businesses. In particular, its focus on looking past headlines to underlying drivers to form judgments I found to be very impactful.”
— THOMAS SWEET, former CFO, Dell Technologies
“A vital guide to thinking about macroeconomic risks for those executives—and policymakers—who have to make judgments about how to respond to a world that is likely to continue to generate new surprises.”
— BRAD SETSER, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
CLICK HERE TO READ ALL ENDORSEMENTS
“A provocative, pragmatic, and didactic take on a topic that is top of mind for corporate leaders around the world. A rich tapestry of insight, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms is thought provoking in its rejection of simplistic economic narratives, instead advocating for a balanced, grounded perspective that acknowledges the limits of economics. This work is a valuable resource and a compelling read for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the intricacies of macroeconomics in an ever-changing global context.”
— ANDRE MACIEL, Global CFO, Kraft Heinz
“Shocks, Crises and False Alarms refreshingly argues that it is misplaced to believe in single, silver-bullet frameworks and models to predict and manage macroeconomic risk. Instead, the reader benefits from engaging analyses to demonstrate that business leaders must use their experience, open-mindedness, and decision-making to navigate whatever comes their way. With this book, everyone can learn to navigate what may come.”
— ALI DIBADJ, CEO, Janus Henderson
“A valuable framework to improve decision-making in an uncertain world. The authors replace the false precision of point forecasts with an analytical focus on the economic drivers that shape risk and outcomes. The book encourages investors and business executives to overlay their judgment to define narratives that are adaptable to change.”
— TOM LUDDY, former Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Investment Management
“Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms is an essential read in today’s world of global macroeconomic uncertainty. Far from preaching infallible predictive models, it approaches the world’s complexity with refreshing humility, busting plenty of doom-mongering myths along the way and offering a framework to ground decision-making in sound judgment.”
— ALEX DRUMMOND, Chief Strategy Officer, American Express
“Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms brings great clarity to the macroeconomic realities leaders need to understand and operate under. It brings the authors’ classic moves together in one good read: clear facts, historical context, and a warning not to overreact to hype or doom. But most important for me are the tools and scenarios to help me think and plan ahead. The world is ever-changing, but this book helped to ground my thinking after the extraordinary shock of Covid and to navigate the global uncertainties that remain.”
— MIKI TSUSAKA, President, Microsoft Japan
“Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz offer a richly researched and timely analysis of how leaders can improve their understanding of macroeconomic risks and use these lessons to shape strategic thinking and action. If Warren Buffett says to be greedy when others are fearful, the authors break down macroeconomic fears so you can be a more effective leader.”
— DAVID M. VAN SLYKE, Dean, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University
“Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms is the antithesis to much of today’s literature on the economy and financial markets, which makes simplistic, confident, and often dire predictions. It’s a must-read for CEOs and business leaders in search of meaningful insights about the risks shaping the global economy. Timeless, compelling, and thought-provoking, the book also provides a framework for strengthening your own judgment.”
— FRANK BROSENS, Member of the Board of Directors, Peterson Institute of International Economics; cofounder and Chief Investment Officer, Taconic Capital
“Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz combine a deep understanding of global financial and economic systems to offer a highly readable guide to coming risks and offer insightful approaches to help investors interpret and respond to future challenges.”
— MARY LOVELY, Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
“A terrific read that gives business leaders the tools to build confidence in our own judgment of macroeconomic risk. It reinforced my optimism that the bar for economic breakdown is much higher than the media make us believe and that the potential for a ‘good macro’ environment is real.”
— LUCY PILKO, CEO Americas, AXA XL
“A tour de force! With a perspective that spans decades to centuries and economic crises to geopolitical tensions, this book offers investors insights that will challenge their perspectives and bring the economic world into sharper focus. The authors combine the skills of economist, Wall Street analyst, and historian to bring a unique perspective to the issues that drive global economies. This book is a stunning rundown of the root drivers of economic growth and crisis—and an enjoyable read to boot!”
— COLIN MCGRANAHAN, Global Director of Research, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
“Tailored to executives, this excellent book serves as a compass for navigating economic, financial, and geopolitical risk, emphasizing the enduring importance of judgment over prediction. A must-read for those seeking a nuanced understanding of macroeconomics and a guide for leaders shaping strategies in an unpredictable world.”
— HON. BILL MORNEAU, former Minister of Finance, Canada
“This incredibly readable book helps executives build a calm, common-sense approach to making balanced judgments about economic risk rather than model-driven predictions likely to fall flat. Helpfully eclectic and facts-based, it avoids certainty in either its excessively pessimistic or optimistic form.”
— GUY MOSZKOWSKI, founder and former CEO, Autonomous Research US; Director, Santander Holdings USA
PRAISE FOR SHOCKS, CRISES, AND FALSE ALARMS
“A provocative, pragmatic, and didactic take on a topic that is top of mind for corporate leaders around the world. A rich tapestry of insight, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms is thought provoking in its rejection of simplistic economic narratives, instead advocating for a balanced, grounded perspective that acknowledges the limits of economics. This work is a valuable resource and a compelling read for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the intricacies of macroeconomics in an ever-changing global context.”
— ANDRE MACIEL, Global CFO, Kraft Heinz
“Shocks, Crises and False Alarms refreshingly argues that it is misplaced to believe in single, silver-bullet frameworks and models to predict and manage macroeconomic risk. Instead, the reader benefits from engaging analyses to demonstrate that business leaders must use their experience, open-mindedness, and decision-making to navigate whatever comes their way. With this book, everyone can learn to navigate what may come.”
— ALI DIBADJ, CEO, Janus Henderson
“A valuable framework to improve decision-making in an uncertain world. The authors replace the false precision of point forecasts with an analytical focus on the economic drivers that shape risk and outcomes. The book encourages investors and business executives to overlay their judgment to define narratives that are adaptable to change.”
— TOM LUDDY, former Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Investment Management
“Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms is an essential read in today’s world of global macroeconomic uncertainty. Far from preaching infallible predictive models, it approaches the world’s complexity with refreshing humility, busting plenty of doom-mongering myths along the way and offering a framework to ground decision-making in sound judgment.”
— ALEX DRUMMOND, Chief Strategy Officer, American Express
“A great book that helps business leaders interpret macroeconomic risks and derive implications for their businesses. In particular, its focus on looking past headlines to underlying drivers to form judgments I found to be very impactful.”
— THOMAS SWEET, former CFO, Dell Technologies
“Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz offer a richly researched and timely analysis of how leaders can improve their understanding of macroeconomic risks and use these lessons to shape strategic thinking and action. If Warren Buffett says to be greedy when others are fearful, the authors break down macroeconomic fears so you can be a more effective leader.”
— DAVID M. VAN SLYKE, Dean, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University
“Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms is the antithesis to much of today’s literature on the economy and financial markets, which makes simplistic, confident, and often dire predictions. It’s a must-read for CEOs and business leaders in search of meaningful insights about the risks shaping the global economy. Timeless, compelling, and thought-provoking, the book also provides a framework for strengthening your own judgment.”
— FRANK BROSENS, Member of the Board of Directors, Peterson Institute of International Economics; cofounder and Chief Investment Officer, Taconic Capital
“Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz combine a deep understanding of global financial and economic systems to offer a highly readable guide to coming risks and offer insightful approaches to help investors interpret and respond to future challenges.”
— MARY LOVELY, Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
“A terrific read that gives business leaders the tools to build confidence in our own judgment of macroeconomic risk. It reinforced my optimism that the bar for economic breakdown is much higher than the media make us believe and that the potential for a ‘good macro’ environment is real.”
— LUCY PILKO, CEO Americas, AXA XL
“Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms brings great clarity to the macroeconomic realities leaders need to understand and operate under. It brings the authors’ classic moves together in one good read: clear facts, historical context, and a warning not to overreact to hype or doom. But most important for me are the tools and scenarios to help me think and plan ahead. The world is ever-changing, but this book helped to ground my thinking after the extraordinary shock of Covid and to navigate the global uncertainties that remain.”
— MIKI TSUSAKA, President, Microsoft Japan
“A tour de force! With a perspective that spans decades to centuries and economic crises to geopolitical tensions, this book offers investors insights that will challenge their perspectives and bring the economic world into sharper focus. The authors combine the skills of economist, Wall Street analyst, and historian to bring a unique perspective to the issues that drive global economies. This book is a stunning rundown of the root drivers of economic growth and crisis—and an enjoyable read to boot!”
— COLIN MCGRANAHAN, Global Director of Research, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
“Tailored to executives, this excellent book serves as a compass for navigating economic, financial, and geopolitical risk, emphasizing the enduring importance of judgment over prediction. A must-read for those seeking a nuanced understanding of macroeconomics and a guide for leaders shaping strategies in an unpredictable world.”
— HON. BILL MORNEAU, former Minister of Finance, Canada
“A vital guide to thinking about macroeconomic risks for those executives—and policymakers—who have to make judgments about how to respond to a world that is likely to continue to generate new surprises.”
— BRAD SETSER, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
“This incredibly readable book helps executives build a calm, common-sense approach to making balanced judgments about economic risk rather than model-driven predictions likely to fall flat. Helpfully eclectic and facts-based, it avoids certainty in either its excessively pessimistic or optimistic form.”
— GUY MOSZKOWSKI, founder and former CEO, Autonomous Research US; Director, Santander Holdings USA
AUTHORS
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is chief economist at BCG and a Managing Director & Partner in the firm’s New York office.
Philipp advises executives and investors on the tactical economic outlook and on structural change. Publishing at the intersection of finance, macroeconomics, and business, he is a frequent contributor to Harvard Business Review, World Economic Forum, and other business publications. You can read Philipp’s latest thinking in his Fortune.com column.
Philipp was previously Chief Economist at Sanford C. Bernstein where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors in the global asset management industry. Earlier in his career, he spent more than ten years advising financial institutions and governments at BCG, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and McKinsey & Company.
He studied at London School of Economics and earned a PhD from the University of Oxford.
Paul Swartz is a senior economist and executive director at Boston Consulting Group’s Center for Macroeconomics.
He frequently speaks about global macroeconomic developments with leaders, investors, and policy makers. And has published in outlets including TIME, WSJ, Harvard Business Review, World Economic Forum, Fortune, CFR.org, and others.
Paul previously worked at Sanford C. Bernstein where he covered the macroeconomy and markets for institutional investors. Earlier in his career, Paul worked within the Investment Strategy Group at Goldman Sachs, the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and the research department at Bridgewater Associates.
He serves as the vice-chair to the Dean’s Advisory Board (College of Art & Sciences) at Syracuse University.
BCG Center for Macroeconomics articulates the firm’s global macro views through frequent publications, and advises executives and investors on navigating cyclical and structural economic risks.
Our research and client activities are deeply intertwined. Engaging with leaders across all industries and all geographies keeps our research agenda focused, while our research coverage is the basis for client service.